# How it's Calculated

ML is calculated by looking at the predicted winning team actually winning or not.

Follow theses three examples for ML. Example 1, the predicted Away team score is 65 and predicted Home team score is 69. The actual score is Away 67 and Home 71. Then the game will be counted as a success and marked with a 1 on the spread sheet. Example 2, the predicted Away team score is 65 and predicted Home team score is 69. The actual score is Away 71 and Home 69. Then the game will be counted as a failure and marked with a 0 on the spread sheet. Example 3, If there is a predicted tie, say Away 70 and Home 70, then the outcome is not counted and will be blank.

ATS is calculated by looking at the initial point spread and selecting whoever has the advantage.

Follow theses four examples for ATS. Example 1, the spread is Home -3, and the predicted Away team score is 65 and the predicted Home team score is 69. The pick would be Home -3. If the actual score is Away 67 and Home 71, then this would be counted as a success, and a 1 is recorded. Example 2, the spread is Home -3, and the predicted Away team score is 67 and the predicted Home team score is 69. The pick would be Away +3. If the actual score is Away 67 and Home 71, then this would be counted as a failure, and a 0 is recorded. Example 3, if a push happens, then outcome is not counted and will be blank. Example 4, the tie always goes to the team with the predicted score advantage. The spread is Home -3, and the predicted Away team score is 70 and the predicted Home team score is 73. The Home team at -3 will be selected. Disclaimer, since lines are variable, the initial line is used to calculate ATS.

% top n is in top n is calculated by looking at probability. Count the number of actual top n finishes and divided by the count of predicted top n finishes.

Win given top n finish is conditional probability. It is calculated by the intersection of a winning and predicted top n finish divided by a number of races.